Indian Q3 GDP Growth Rate: What to Expect?

3 Mar 2020  Read 378 Views

Q3 GDP growth rate figures have been released. But, what do they imply?  In the last few years, Indian Cricket team has seen numerous nail-biting finishes due to strategy implemented by MS Dhoni.

Whenever the top order batsmen couldn’t perform and the pressure was on middle order batsmen to finish the game, MS Dhoni took the game ahead differently. Instead of trying to finish the game early, he dragged it and took it till the end. It won’t be wrong to say that many people lost hopes during this dragged period. Also, the run rate required in the slog overs went quite high at times.

Look at the quarter-wise GDP numbers of our economy and you’ll be able to relate to this scenario. India is targeting a 5 trillion economy by 2024 and to achieve this, our economy now needs to grow at 10%. That’s an overwhelming target, right? Well, to add to the woes the Q3 GDP numbers have been declared. For third quarter, our GDP growth stood at 4.7 percent. But, what does this imply? Read on to find out.

Q3 - Between The Lines

December quarter results are not just low but, lowest in last 7 years! By the way, the last quarter (July to September) registered a growth rate of 5.1 percent. The estimated growth for this quarter was expected to be 4.5 percent but, it slightly exceeded the expectations and grew at 4.7 percent.

National Statistical Office (NSO) has recently released the growth estimates for financial year 2019 – 20 and they have capped it at 5 percent. As we came to know this, we immediately recalled our Finance Minister Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman’s budget speech in which she assumed coming years’ GDP growth at 10 percent.

Government’s Take

When a disease is diagnosed, doctors prescribe a medicine to curb it. What if, the doctor after diagnosing the disease says - “Everything’s fine and you are getting healthier with time!” That would be weird, right?

But, probably that’s usually the case with Indian government. Economy is slowing down but our Finance Minister says that the economy is not in trouble and that we’re strongly moving towards a 5 trillion economy.

Private investments, exports, private and public consumption are the four pillars that the government has identified to stimulate economic growth. Also, there’s an Index of Industrial Production (IIP) which indicates the growth of industries. The growth of eight core industries has been recorded at 2.2 percent on YoY (year on year) basis. This is a positive sign according to the Sectary of Economic Affairs.

What Lies Ahead?

Coming back to where we started from, when the required run rate for India to win the match is quite high, we keep hope. Even if the required run rate is unrealistically high, we hope for a miracle (that happens once in a blue moon). For now, Indian economy’s situation is almost the same if we consider the target of 5 trillion Dollars.

Now, let’s discuss about a factor that might cause a miracle for Indian economy. Coronavirus has created a disruption in the global market, which might be a good opportunity for India.

Read: The impact of Coronavirus in India's Industries

Say, the export gap that has been created can be exploited by India and that might help in fueling the growth of Indian economy. On the other hand, if Coronavirus spreads in India as well then it would act as salt on wound. So, let’s just patiently observe the swing of the pendulum and hope for the best.

Hope you liked this information. Comment below with your opinions/suggestions. Should you wish to stay updated and would like to receive relevant financial news and analysis straight in your inbox, subscribe Smart Mornings.

About the Author: Ratan Deep Singh | 145 Post(s)

Ratan is a Biotechnology graduate and a former print-media Journalist, who specialized in marketing to take up Brand Communication. He’s a grammar Nazi & big-time foodie who appreciates creativity and often tries his hand in creative poetic writing.

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