"A leader is not someone who forces others to make themselves stronger rather, a leader tends to give his or her strength to others so they have the strength to face themselves".
Nine months after Iraq held its parliamentary elections in October 2021, political leaders could not form a government. The country's political crisis reached a peak point when demonstrators supporters of Shia chief Muqtada al-Sadr, one of the most effective leaders in the country, attacked Iraq’s parliament to protest against corruption Al-Sadr had ordered his parliamentary alliances to renounce en-masse i.e.,, ( to resign at the same time ) in June after the parliament didn't form the government. As an effect of his speech, his followers, who had been already protesting the country of Iraqi politics, breached safety withinside the Green Zone and broke into authorities' buildings.
Iraq has failed to form a government since the October 2021 general election, in which the Sadr-led bloc won the most seats. Most Iraqis have lost faith that a democratic system will change their lives for the better. growing discord. Violent power struggles between the dominant Shiite parties have put the country in deep crisis and led to violence. In general, leadership positions and ministers in Iraq politics are spread across three major Iraqi population groups: Shia Muslims, Sunni Muslims, and Kurds. Serious controversy has grown over the past few years. the power struggle is part of the problem. The competition has arisen partly because al-Sadr opposes foreign interference in Iraq affairs, whether the US or Iran. The coordination structure mainly represents a military formed by local volunteers to fight with the Islamic State in Iraq in 2014. The military receives financial, and even theological support from Iran
What is a 'Political dead-end'?
According to Mohammad Saleh Sedghian, Director of Iran's Center for Iranian Studies, Iran is not always interested in micro-dealing with Iraqi politics, instead prioritizing any instability that could be dangerous. for its national security. What makes Iran submissive is its desire for balance in Iraq. The two shares a border of the 1,400km-870-mile and fought for eight years in the 1980s, and now a security problem is happening in Iraq because of crooks in Iran, though correct or not. Sedghian told Al Jazeera. When the Sadrist movement took over the Iraqi parliament building, Iran did not intervene and did not need to intervene, but regardless of what Iran wanted, is that al-Sadr had reached a "political statement" on many supporters. This forced parliament to dissolve, which was observed through an ultimately unsuccessful attempt to shut down the judiciary. However, having retired and returned before that, he predicts he could be out for at least five years due to the severity.
What is the Strategic Plan of Action?
Iran and Iraq have a historical, cultural, and spiritual relationship that makes them "deeply linked," not less than their neighbors. Afghanistan cannot update Iraq for Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan or maybe Turkey - whom we have more changes for the better than Iraq," he told Al Jazeera.
Especially in conferences where senior Iraq officers come to see the perfect leader, they often hear that the perfect leader simply declares that Iraq is the strategic intensity of Iran and that Iran is the intensity of the war. Iraq strategy. According to Afghanistan, the United States and Israel could instigate Iraq and divide it into Shia, Sunni, and Kurdish divisions, which could hurt Iraq, Iran, and the region. All eyes are now on al-Sadr, the judiciary, parliament, and Mustafa Al-Kadhimi to see if they can allow al-Sadr's Saraya al-Salam to take up arms or 'if they can be arrested. disarm', and we have to see if disarming a capability can end peacefully or by itself create a new war.
Why does this problem occur?
The protest was against the nomination of a candidate from a rival coalition subsidized by Iran for the minister post. Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, a former minister and former provincial governor, was selected in the pro-Iran coordination framework for the post of prime minister. Al-Sadr rejected his candidacy.
Al-Sudani simply gave a very convenient excuse for Muqtada al-Sadr to express his dissatisfaction with the entire coordination framework and political machine in Iraq,” said Martin Alshamary, a research fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School. “He can get this done if everyone gets nominated. Al-Sudani truly represents one of the least suspect figures in the coordination framework.
Protesters took pictures of al-Sadr and chanted slogans in support of him. They cleared Parliament most effectively and returned to their homes after he asked them to do so on Twitter, announcing that they had received the message.
Why Iraq cannot form a government?
Since the October 2021 elections in Iraq, negotiations to form a new government have stalled.
Al-Sadr's alliances received 74 seats, making it the largest faction in the 329-seat parliament.
After a strong performance, al-Sadr reiterated his pledge to form a "national majority government" representing unique sects and ethnicities, including Sunni Muslims and Kurds, but about basically eliminated the framework of Shiite coordination, including the old enemy, former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.
The Fatah coalition - the political bloc of the pro-Iranian Popular Mobilization Forces military - suffered a crushing defeat in the election.
To protect his Sunni and Kurdish allies, al-Sadr also took to the streets to distance himself from agencies like Fatah. Some pro-Iran military agencies have warned of an escalation of violence if Sunni and Kurdish agencies join al-Sadr's side.
Why did Sadr withdraw from Parliament?
After nearly eight consecutive months of failure of the Iraqi parliament to establish a central authority, al-Sadr withdrew himself from parliamentary 74 Sadrist Movement legislators from office. Iranian and American influence in Iraq has accused his Movement and its allies of having a majority, putting it in competition with foreign agencies. subsidized by Iran.
However, despite his nationalist rhetoric, no one holds the same view that al-Sadr is completely anti-Iran: The reality is that in Iraq, there is not always an unformed political party whether he is Shia, Sunni, or not. the Kurds, which have no ties to Iran.
If a national majority authority succeeds, it would be an unprecedented deviation from Iraq's muhasasa (quota-based) arrangement, which was built on a shared basis. sectarian power among the Shiite, Sunnis, and Kurds.
It could also be a blow to Iran's political influence in Iraq, as Iran generally favors Shia bodies aligned with other Shia Muslims for a majority.
What are the other expectations from the protests?
While ordering his alliance to resign, al-Sadr expanded the coordination framework's process to form a central body when it had multiple seats. By law, if a deputy resigns, the candidate who comes second in the election will fill the vacant seat. Analysts warn that the rift between Iraq's Shia agencies could be unprecedented and that a backlash could ensue if al-Sadr or the coordinator is cast aside. is inevitable.
The resignation of Sadrists that perpetuated Iraq's political disaster because of how vacant seats were filled has sparked a new wave of debate and enhancement. al-Sadr's impending manipulation of his supporters was a tacit warning to the surge capacity coordination framework that would roll back if a central authority worked. with al-Sudani at the helm. Al-Sadr has proven that even if his supporters do not sit in parliament, he cannot be sidelined by Iraqi politicians and can rally opponents to position his factor.
Reason Behind Iraq`s Escalating Political Crisis
The deadly clashes broke out in Iraq after the host flooded out of the country's government into a political crisis. Iraq's policy even though they took the same oath before and did not respect them. Sadr's statement became a dangerous and determined ploy to keep his power going and agitate his base. Sadr has no current leverage, so what he is doing appeals to the emotions of his fans, who are closest to private followers Iraq Initiative. remained at an impasse in June, Sadr ordered the resignations of 73 MPs without recoil. they were suddenly replaced; for the first time in nearly decades, his influence overshadowed that of parliament. Since July, Sadr supporters have stayed inside the parliament building to disrupt the political efforts of opponents. But clashes that left at least 15 people dead and more than 100 injured prompted the military to impose a National curfew that suggested the crisis would take a new turn.
What is the impact of Iraq's political crisis?
Currently, Iraq's political crisis is in jeopardy, and whether or not Sadr Coordination Framework is fired, a backlash on both of these crimes could happen. out, especially for the loyalty of Sadr's supporters. The protests have remained nonviolent, but they turned violent, no doubt against the heavily armed military on both sides.
A destabilized Iraq could affect Iran and influence the United States. Iraq is also a strategic accomplice of the United States in supporting a strong Iraqi government and aiming to prevent any resurgence in addition, an escalation of the war could disrupt oil production in Iraq, the world's fifth-largest supplier, while increasing tensions in the global crude oil market.
How can Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) help Iraq?
During the Iraq political crisis, social media played a huge role Protesters left parliament at Sadr's request via Twitter. Social media has been held responsible for leaking unsavory recordings of Nouri al-Maliki, a former minister associated with Iran. Sadr's complaint against Maliki on Twitter even prompted the previous prime minister to refuse the nomination. Open-access content like social media allows intelligence teams to filter new activity in real time when disaster strikes. On a large scale, these records can find different types of open source intelligence (OSINTs), for example, public sentiment and grievances among the Iraqi population or infrastructure developments. and the new generation of navies through nearby protected news forums. These statistics are important for improving situational awareness, information about Iraq's statistical environment, and gaining a statistical advantage, especially as the United States navigates sports sensitive about geopolitics in the region.
Who is Muqtada al-Sadr?
Al-Sadr is an elite person who emerged as an icon of resistance against the American occupation of Iraq after the 2003 invasion. He founded a military; Mahdi's army eventually disbanded and changed the name to Saraya Salam to the Peace Brigade. He presents himself as an opponent of the United States and Iran and has long established himself as a nationalist with an anti-reform agenda.
Al-Sadr derives himself from the legacy of his relatives. He is the son of Grand Ayatollah Mohammed Sadeq al-Sadr, assassinated in 1999 for his key position against Saddam Hussein. Many of his fans say they stick with him because they are loyal to his father. Al-Sadr eventually entered politics and became known for his unpredictability and theater, often using his fans to gain political leverage over his opponents. His effective rhetoric with revolutionary conviction and necessity resonated deeply with his disenfranchised supporters.
Through these strategies, he has proven to be an effective player with a madly engaged grassroots community focused on Iraq's poorer neighborhoods. Most of his loyalists who attacked the Green Zone were unemployed and blamed Iraq's political elite. In 2021, al-Sadr's celebration received the largest share of seats in the October parliamentary elections but was no longer enough to maintain a majority in the government. His refusal to talk to Iran-subsidized Shia opponents about setting up a central authority has pushed Iraq into an unprecedented political vacuum for ten months.
What do Al-Sadr`s fans want?
The political crisis escalated in July when al-Sadr's supporters charged parliament to discourage their opponents in the Coordination Framework, an alliance of Shiite parties heavily subsidized by Iran. , from the establishment of a central authority. Hundreds of people have set up scenes to sit outside continuously for more than 4 weeks. al-Sadr also ordered his Alliances to give up their parliamentary seats and called for the snap elections and dissolve parliament. The last time Al-Sadr attempted to incite resistance to the international alliance through his newspaper "Al-Hawzah", was in 2004. This decision resulted in the closure of the Coalition Provisional Authority. The situation in Iraq today is very different, and the Shia-led government hardly has the power or will to act against al-Sadr for inciting violence. As Iraq spread out the line between instability and civil war, al-Sadr's actions in the coming days will have a significant influence on the future direction of the country this will be an unwelcome challenge to multinational forces that have fought a successful revolution.
The United States maintains about 2,000 troops in Iraq to fight the leftover fight of the Islamic State, far more than the 170,000 American troops are at peak who were once preoccupied in dealing with the Iraq government The American officers have left away from such interactions in recent years, according to the Iraq officers. Iraq is no longer seen as a game changer for its neighborhood, possibly if Iraq loses its minimum balance. It's too quick to assume this is a loss for Iran, it could turn out to be a loss for everyone; then the question is, who will choose the areas of Iraq that are still a priority for coverage in Iraq. the most important strategic partners of countries in the region, call this "the foundation of local balance." The US respects Iraq's sovereignty and sees the formation of a government as an Iraqi problem and something Iraqi leaders want to solve without any civil war between Shia societies that could have profound effects not only on the Iraqi people but also on wider neighborhoods and even on other parts of the world.